Saturday, May 1, 2010
He succumbed to brain cancer at the age of 59.
Carruth had the respect and admiration of legislators in both parties. He will be missed as a great representative from his district.
The campaign has also gotten ugly. All three front runners have created attack pieces, but the war between Minear and McKinley has gotten most vicious. Every once in awhile you see McKinley attack Warner in his e mails, but they have set their bulls eye on Minear. All parties accuse each other of outright lies.
McKinley's negative mailers may be hurting him. Polls may show a different story, but anecdotally, moderate and independent Republican voters tell me that they don't tend to read the fine print. All they see between the mailbox and the trash can is the bold print. (Incidentally, they also say they are more likely to read a mailer when they know, or at least have met the candidate.) Constant daily attacks against Minear create a negative impression. One voter told me that her only impression of McKinley is that he was an ass, based upon simply reading the bold print of the mailer she got. For people in the 14th who supported Minear over the years, they will likely end up with a negative impression of McKinley because they have met Minear and many voted for her faithfully.
This is not meant to attack McKinley, but to point out that constant negative campaigning at this stage can backfire. I would humbly suggest that McKinley should send more positive mailers about himself into the 14th senatorial district. People get that he and Minear have a difference of interpretation on their records by now. They want to know more about the candidates from this avalanche of literature they are receiving.
Finally, the candidates should realize that West Virginia Republicans are not used to a primary competition in many areas. Seeing Republicans viciously attack each other, almost every day in this case, does not create a positive impression. The 11th Commandment means more to Republicans unused to this public spectacle. Warner may benefit from this kind of fatigue because he has not been able to match the sheer amount of stuff sent out. What I have seen of his mailers has been, unfortunately, negative. However Warner can't reach your house five times a week like the other two. That may make him seem less negative by default.
At the end of the day as a voter you often have to ignore most of the negative stuff and look at the candidates, their ideas, and their backgrounds. What have they done? What credentials do they have? What potential do they have? Who are they? The candidate with the best record, the best ideas and principles, and the strongest background and abilities should get the vote. I am holding off on voting until the end this year just to see how the congressional race shakes out. I know pretty much how I am going to vote otherwise. With the enormous pressures of this campaign, you will likely see at least one of the candidates eliminate themselves through some rash statement or action. Stay tuned.
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Came up with this earlier and it bears repeating. The illegal alien law in Arizona affects those of Mexican descent much like it would someone carrying a bag of pot in their pocket. If you just go around, act normally, and live your life then you likely will not get caught, either as an illegal or a carrier of a pot baggie. If you drive stupid, get into fights, and otherwise act like a fool, chances are that a cop will see you and wonder what is up. This is when the window opens to check on your legal status.
Thing 1,098 that liberals refer to and have no idea what they are talking about: the Mexican War.
Liberals love to point at it as some kind of unwarranted war of aggression and conquest waged by a rapacious United States (led at the time by President James K. Polk, Democrat.) That is far from the truth. Since it is being brought up, let's get the truth about this war told.
Conflict started the day Texas won its independence. Texas rebelled against the dictator Antonio Lopez y Santa Anna. This rebellion included both Mexicans and American immigrants who wanted the government to leave them alone. Santa Anna invaded the province, lost the war, and signed off on Texas independence.
This independence was recognized by the Great Powers, Britain first and foremost. Recognition means that you are a sovereign state. Because of the slave issue and fears over war with Mexico, the United States put off annexation for nine years despite repeated requests from the Republic of Texas to join the Union.
Polk in 1844 ran on admitting Texas and won. Congress soonafter approved Texas' entry into the Union. Mexico warned that this meant war. Despite the fact that Texas was a soveriegn nation, recognized as such by other nations, and it had every right to unite with the U.S., Polk sent diplomats to offer Mexico money to prevent war. Mexico refused, cut off diplomatic relations, and mobilized their military.
Polk sent the Army to the border to protect Texas. Mexican troops crossed the border and attacked U.S. soldiers, killing several. Congress responded by giving Mexico what they had been begging for, a war.
The fact that the United States easily whipped Mexico and took as compensation a huge chunk of Mexican territory does not erase the fact that Mexico begged for a war and started it when the U. S. would not oblige. We went to great lengths to avoid the war, Mexico overcame every obstacle we tried to throw in their path.
OK liberals, that is your lesson for today
Sound ridiculuous? Of course it does. As most people know, the law violators are illegal aliens. Most do not realize that Arizona has attracted much of the violent criminal element acrosss the border. Phoenix has become the kidnapping capital of the United States and law enforcement is losing control of gangs that operate with impunity. On top of that, wrongheaded federal courts have ruled that states must provide illegals with social services. Arizona has figured out a way around lax enforcement at the federal level. Make illegal residence a state crime and enforce the law itself.
Arizona will save millions, maybe billions, in social service and law enforcement costs. California is sinking like the Titanic from the same issues, yet politicians there blast the Arizona law. Obama threatens to challenge it in court, calling the law profiling. Of course illegal aliens in Arizona are going to be 99% Mexican, there is no way around that fact. However, Governor Brewer should likely ignore any ruling or opinion against her state. After all, to go back means to continue to saddle Arizona with escalating costs and violence. The federal government will do nothing. States, especially on the border, must take action.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
West Virginia will soon be a Democratic minority state. I would say this process will be complete by at the latest 2014.Yes Democrats have the majority of registered voters now, but they face a steady stream of defections from their ranks. New voters who see little future in what Obama promises, who understand that leftists want to steal the rewards of ambition and work, they are leaving. Miners and their families, even in die hard Democratic counties, are leaving. People who have clung fiercely to the Democratic Party for generations have found that Obama, Pelosi, Mollohan, etc do not follow policies that will put food on workers' tables in West Virginia. Demographics do not favor Democrats. The older generation is passing on, taking away the last of the FDR voters and some of those inspired by Kennedy. Younger people tend to choose Republican or Independent registrations.
But will West Virginia be a Republican majority state? It all depends. In state history, party switches happen quickly. Chaning conditions and party stances often provoke powerful and fast changes. West Virginia has never been a two party state.In the 1890s Stephen Elkins, pictured to the left, brought organization and leadership to West Virginia in a time when major party shifts took place nationwide. Elkins sold the GOP vision in West Virginia. Not everyone was entirely on board in support of Elkins, but the people favored the development policies he advocated. West Virginia moved from the Democratic to the Republican Party.
Republican leadership in West Virginia is moving forward to take advantage of the shift taking place in the state. It must continue to remind voters that Republicans here support development and oppose additional federal burdens. They must stay committed to lowering taxes and reducing spending at all levels of government to gain support.
Democrats are declining quickly in West Virginia, but it is not yet inevitable that Republicans will gain a clear majority. Disgusted Democrats and Tea Party style libertarians for different reasons are choosing to remain independent. To gain and keep the support of both, the GOP must continue to support basic anti-tax and pro-development issues. Elected officials must also act on the principles that got them elected.
Monday, April 26, 2010
First of all, apologies for not posting at the end of last week. I had to travel last weekend.
Obama, according to Politico.com, released a video message through the DNC trying fairly uncharismatically to connect with the same voters who he thinks enabled his victory originally, blacks, hispanics, women, and (supposedly) women. The Democrats hope that a national resurgence of Obamamania will save them this fall.
Remember when Obama was supposed to be a uniter, break racial, partisan, and gender divides? Perhaps the drop off in support over the past couple of years reflects that fact that Obama was not what he promised to be. He is taxing the middle class, demonizing his enemies, keeping his legislation secret instead of open, and showing a distinct pettiness and condescension towards even his supporters. Instead of distancing himself from the ultimate politician, Bill Clinton, as he tried to do in 2008, he now embraces Clinton.
Obama did this partly to himself. He built up unreasonable expectations and promised certain things to the electorate. Those promises were forgotten quickly. The carefully crafted image of a liberal messiah sent by heaven to erase Bushism crumbled. If an election were held today between Bush and Obama, Bush would eke out a win. This puts Obama back at the same level of popularity as John Kerry.
Will those voters come out to support Obama and vote in the off elections? Likely no. Young people now understand that he is not an idealist. Furthermore, Republicans have convicned them that Obama policies have mortgaged their future. All Obama can do is say "no it won't" even as his own budget offices prove that he deceived us. Middle class and wealthy blacks are increasingly agitated about taxes. Traditionally Democratic Jewish voters are angry over the mistreatment of Israel and its leaders. In short, Obama's radical agenda, condescending nature, and horrible foreign policy have alienated much of his base. Democrats will pay in November.