Saturday, May 1, 2010

First Congressional District Race Growing Expensive

If the stacks of mail on the table by my door are any indication, the race for Republican nominee in the First Congressional District has grown extremely expensive. Almost every other day I get a piece from McKinley. Minear mail comes somewhat less often. I believe I have received maybe two pieces from Mac Warner. A recent McKinley e mail requests more contributions from his supporters due to the fact that, as the e mail claims, Sarah Minear has put $500,000 of her own money into the campaign. Give Sarah Minear credit, she is willing to put her own money on the line and can claim to be less beholden to special interests. Be prepared for an onslaught to literature from her.

The campaign has also gotten ugly. All three front runners have created attack pieces, but the war between Minear and McKinley has gotten most vicious. Every once in awhile you see McKinley attack Warner in his e mails, but they have set their bulls eye on Minear. All parties accuse each other of outright lies.

McKinley's negative mailers may be hurting him. Polls may show a different story, but anecdotally, moderate and independent Republican voters tell me that they don't tend to read the fine print. All they see between the mailbox and the trash can is the bold print. (Incidentally, they also say they are more likely to read a mailer when they know, or at least have met the candidate.) Constant daily attacks against Minear create a negative impression. One voter told me that her only impression of McKinley is that he was an ass, based upon simply reading the bold print of the mailer she got. For people in the 14th who supported Minear over the years, they will likely end up with a negative impression of McKinley because they have met Minear and many voted for her faithfully.

This is not meant to attack McKinley, but to point out that constant negative campaigning at this stage can backfire. I would humbly suggest that McKinley should send more positive mailers about himself into the 14th senatorial district. People get that he and Minear have a difference of interpretation on their records by now. They want to know more about the candidates from this avalanche of literature they are receiving.

Finally, the candidates should realize that West Virginia Republicans are not used to a primary competition in many areas. Seeing Republicans viciously attack each other, almost every day in this case, does not create a positive impression. The 11th Commandment means more to Republicans unused to this public spectacle. Warner may benefit from this kind of fatigue because he has not been able to match the sheer amount of stuff sent out. What I have seen of his mailers has been, unfortunately, negative. However Warner can't reach your house five times a week like the other two. That may make him seem less negative by default.

At the end of the day as a voter you often have to ignore most of the negative stuff and look at the candidates, their ideas, and their backgrounds. What have they done? What credentials do they have? What potential do they have? Who are they? The candidate with the best record, the best ideas and principles, and the strongest background and abilities should get the vote. I am holding off on voting until the end this year just to see how the congressional race shakes out. I know pretty much how I am going to vote otherwise. With the enormous pressures of this campaign, you will likely see at least one of the candidates eliminate themselves through some rash statement or action. Stay tuned.

No comments:

Post a Comment