From the John Raese for U. S. Senate website.
Cook Political Reports
September 30, 2010
http://www.cookpolitical.com/node/8561
This special election to fill the remainder of the late Sen. Robert Byrd’s term was supposed to be a walk in the park for Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin. The Democratic-controlled state legislature set the table for him with an advantageous schedule of filing deadlines, primaries and special election dates. But, recent polling indicates that this will be anything but an easy race.
A Rasmussen (IVR) poll (September 27 of 750 likely voters) gave Republican businessman John Raese a two-point lead over Manchin, 48 percent to 46 percent. A Public Policy Polling (IVR) survey taken a week earlier (September 18-19 of 1,397 likely voters) had Raese ahead, 46 percent to 43 percent. Among all general election ballot tests taken in the contest, Raese now leads Manchin by three points, 49 percent to 46 percent, according to the HuffPollster.com trend line.
Although Manchin remains popular – his job approval rating in a September 19 Rasmussen survey was 69 percent – he must make the transition from being the state’s chief executive to being a federal candidate in a hostile climate for his party. A case in point is President Obama whose approval ratings in West Virginia are some of his lowest nationally. According to the PPP survey, Obama’s job ratings were 30-percent approve to 64-percent disapprove. At the same time, Manchin is getting help from some unlikely sources. It’s not surprising that he’s been endorsed by the major labor unions, but he’s also gotten the endorsement of the Chamber of Commerce. Even more surprising is today’s endorsement from the West Virginia Coal Association, which is a very direct slap at Raese, who is in the coal business.
This race has gotten very competitive very fast. Republicans weren’t sure that they could make in-roads here, given Manchin’s popularity, and hadn’t planned to invest in the race. Raese is a wealthy businessman who can self-fund the race. He owns companies in the mining and media industries; he is the CEO of a newspaper publishing company and owns a network of radio stations. Like Manchin, national Democrats believed that the contest would not get close. Manchin has seemingly been preparing for a Senate bid for years and was just waiting for the opportunity to run. All that has now changed and both parties are playing here.
Like many races, the narrative of this contest is perhaps best told through the ads. If nothing else, the back and forth on television and radio attest to the fact that this has become a very close contest.
In one of his first attacks on Manchin, Raese invokes coal and national Democrats’ cap and trade proposal. In the spot, an announcer says, “We generate electricity through coal. But Joe Manchin passed a law that eliminates 25% of coal usage in our power plants. It’s Obama’s cap and trade bill, West Virginia style.”
RAESE: “Joe Manchin should know better. Cutting coal usage will cost West Virginia jobs. Joe Manchin has thrown us under the bus. So imagine the damage he’ll do in Washington with his friend, Barack Obama. I’m John Raese and I approve of this message because I won’t be a rubberstamp for Obama’s cap and trade bill. I’ll fight for you.”
Manchin has also brought up mining in his attacks on Raese. According to the script, Manchin says, “I’m Joe Manchin and I approve this message because I’ll always do what’s best for West Virginia.”
ROBERTS: “I’m Cecil Roberts. My job is to protect these miners. Joe Manchin worked with us to pass historic mine safety laws. He’s always been there for us.”
ANNOUNCER: “But John Raese is bad for mine workers. Almost $100,000 in fines, over 600 safety violations.”
ROBERTS: “John Raese puts profits before people and I don’t trust him to look after these miners. And neither should you.”
Both party committees are now heavily involved in the race. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee went up this week with a spot that hits Raese’s record as a businessman. In the spot, an announcer says, “John Raese. He wants to eliminate the minimum wage. Failed to pay workers compensation for on the job injuries. But one thing John Raese does support? A pledge that protected tax breaks for corporations who ship our jobs overseas. It’s true. Protecting tax breaks that reward corporations for sending our jobs overseas. West Virginia working families, we can do better. And we have to.”
The National Republican Senatorial Committee is on the air with both television and radio ads, and have bought time in the expensive Washington, DC media market that reaches 12 percent of West Virginia voters. Both ads portray Manchin as another rubberstamp for President Obama’s agenda. The radio ad seeks to differentiate Manchin, the popular Governor, from Manchin, a potential Democratic U.S. Senator. According to the script:
MAN 1: “Hey did you hear about those folks getting laid off?”
MAN 2: “Oh yeah, federal government’s making it real hard to make a living these days, and it’s killing our economy.”
MAN 1: “Joe Manchin supports all that big Washington government.”
MAN 2: “Oh yeah, it’s like he’s a different person when it comes to Washington.”
MAN 1: “I know, I know…it’s like, there’s West Virginia Joe, who’s not bad as governor, then he becomes Washington Joe, a “yes man” for Barack Obama and the Washington liberals.”
MAN 2: “Yeah, Washington Joe supported Obama’s failed stimulus bill.”
MAN 1: “Yeah, and unemployment went up again last month.”
MAN 2: “ Yup. Washington Joe also supported Obama’s government takeover of health care that cut Medicare and increased costs.”
MAN 1: “You know, we better keep Joe Manchin in West Virginia and don’t let him near Washington.”
MAN 2: “Oh, that’s for sure.”
Judging by the polls, voters already seem to be making the distinction between Gov. Manchin and the Senator he might be. And, like voters nationally, they might be disgusted enough with the Democratic-controlled Congress not to want to add another Democrat to their ranks.
Raese makes no bones about the importance of this race, often referring to it as the 10th seat – the seat that would hand a majority to Senate Republicans. That might have been true before Christine O’Donnell became the GOP Senate nominee in Delaware, making it much more difficult for Republicans to win that race and gain the 10 seats they need. Still, winning this race would be a major coup for Republicans. West Virginia hasn’t had a Republican U.S. Senator since 1958.
The race that wasn’t supposed to be competitive is now the contest that is too close to call today. It moves to the Toss Up column.
Disclaimer: The National Republican Senatorial Committee provided the above article as a service to its employees and other selected individuals. Any opinions expressed therein are those of the article’s author and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of the NRSC.
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