What Is to Be Done?

Obama's responses to Russian belligerence have not only been wrong, but almost the worst possible actions.  He postured, threatened, then leveled meaningless sanctions against Putin's Russia.  Obama's impotence only made his Russian counterpart that much more popular.  Russians historically appreciate dramatic action that builds national strength and international respect.  Adding to the land area of the nation does not hurt either.  Russians see the mano y mano struggle with Obama as being without consequences because under this president, the United States has only rarely shown strength.

Here is what Obama could do to regain some leverage.

Stop everything you are doing now.  No more talking with the Russians.  No kicking them out of international clubs.  And definitely no sanctions.  Stop doing anything that is pointless presidential posturing with nothing behind it.  The Russians know these are public relations moves, not serious diplomacy.

And sanctions do not work against a nation that has pretty much everything.

Concede the Crimea; anticipate the next move.  Crimea belongs to Russia now.  Stop making it the issue because it deflects world attention from what could come next.  It also happens to be the move Russia can sell best to its own people.  No way the West can peacefully get him out.

Go to Canossa.  When the Soviets moved aggressively after World War II, Harry Truman had to do something that he hated worse than anything on Earth . . . talk to Republicans.  Truman wanted to ramp up American support of free nations while Republicans wanted to save money.  He struck a deal with GOP senators that underlay American resistance to Communist aggression for the next four decades.  

Obama needs the House of Representatives in his camp on this issue.  To get the Russians' attention, he must get funding for the A-10 and the armored divisions.  The A-10 kills tanks more effectively than anything on the planet.  American tanks have not lost an armored engagement in most peoples' living memories.  Both are designed to engage Russian forces in northern or eastern Europe. Reinstating these programs shows Putin that the US is serious.

So too will Obama offering up sacrifices to gain Republican confidence and support.

Supporting allies.  The United States needs to reassure Europe that we remain committed to the NATO alliance.  Military forces could perform public, yet peaceful, joint exercises with Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland.  Since all are NATO allies, Russia has no cause to publicly complain, but it remains a message sent.  An extra carrier strike group could visit Portsmouth, or some other allied naval base.

Turn on the taps.  Lift export restrictions on natural gas, rescind EPA regulations passed on coal since 2009, and approve oil and gas drilling quickly.  This ensures that energy remains inexpensive in the United States and prices drop around the world.  Russia relies heavily on energy exports to support its prosperity.  American market dominance could cripple the bear.

Messages that the United States will not fail its allies, combined with real measures that will weaken the Russian economy can halt Putin in his tracks.  The United States, with a wise and strong policy, can block Russia's future ambitions

No Time For Newbies

Russia's move into the Caucasian Republic of Georgia demonstrates that a new challenge has started shaping up to American interests around the world.

Russia has restarted its traditional drive to the south, a historical expansion dating back to the 1400s. That country sees the belt of smaller nations to its south as its own national playground, a historical reality that should make Iran, Pakistan, and other nations very nervous. Certainly at one time nations did claim "spheres of influence" and asserted the right to total predominance in those regions and the US was no different. However it is 2008, not 1908. Times have changed.

Some commentators linked the drive against Georgia to the war in Chechnya that Putin prosecuted to success in the beginning of his presidency. The two situations could not be more different. Chechnya is a part of Russian territory inhabited by a separatist ethnic group. The Chechen War was fought to maintain the integrity of Russian territory and to prevent like minded Muslim minorities in Russia from also fighting to leave. Georgia is a sovereign nation invaded by Russia.

Russia through this invasion intends to reassert itself as a Great Power who can project its strength at times of its choosing. The drive by the US to incorporate Georgia into the NATO alliance certainly played a role in Russia's decision to flex its muscles at this point. Now that Russia has been well-fed by oil revenues and is led by a prime minister who desires to bring back Russia's imperial glory, the United States must have experienced leadership to deal with this new challenge.

Now is no time for a neophyte president from a party that sees foreign affairs as issues that distract from social engineering and tax hikes. Russia has issued the world a challenge. Nothing would make them happier than to see a newbie elected to the American presidency.