Friday, May 16, 2008

What We Learned Here and Across the State

The West Virginia state primary last Tuesday had dramatic and unanticipated moments both at home and statewide.

First of all, the governor obtained less than 75% of the votes of the Democratic Party. This number presents the perfect opportunity for spin. Gary Abernathy's Republican Gazette declared that one in four Democrats failed to support Manchin. Manchin's camp can claim a sizable victory. If one does the numbers, however, adding 25% of the Democratic Party's registered voters to 100% of the Republican Party's registered voters produces a very slim margin for Manchin in the general election. Russ Weeks must run up the same hill as every other GOP gubernatorial contender, convince every voter in his party while counting on disenchantment with the Democrat. As the West Virginia University scandal flowers into fruition, Manchin will find himself in a very competitive race.

The commissioner of agriculture race saw J. Michael Teets annihilate his adversary on the Republican side. Lawrence Berkerle garnered 36% of the vote statewide. Former Hardy County Commissioner Teets ran particularly well in Mineral, getting 2,440 of the 2,572 votes cast. That was a better percentage than in Hardy County itself. Grant, Pendleton, and Hampshire also gave Teets solid support. Interestingly, incumbent commissioner Democrat Gus Douglas lost in Mineral County to challenger Wayne Casto. He won in the rest of the Potomac Highlands counties by much narrower margins than his statewide tally. Casto got very strong victories in Jefferson, Berkeley, and Morgan as well. Certainly Gus Douglas has not endeared himself to Eastern Panhandle voters of his own party. Teets certainly has a strong foundation from which to mount a victorious campaign in November.

The 14th Senatorial District race produced a surprise on the Democratic side. Mineral County's David Webb picked up around 90% of the votes in his county and also fared very well in Grant. This allowed him to close upon, but not defeat Bob Williams. Williams led 68% to 32% (by at one point nearly 4,000 votes) with 75% of the precincts reporting Tuesday night, but the surge of late returns from the courthouse in Keyser closed the gap to 55-45 with Williams winning by around 1,700. Gary Howell consistently garnered less "undervote" (when voters fail to select an unopposed candidate) than the statewide candidates. Williams was the more conservative of the two Democrats. Certainly Mineral demonstrated a strong desire to elect one of its own while the entire district leaned conservative. This ought to give Howell an edge since a Democratic state legislature will never achieve the goals conservatives desire.

Mineral County's Republican nomination for county commissioner continues to produce drama. At this writing the race remains too close to call. Janice LaRue defeated Roger Leatherman 1102 to 1097 as of last night while Annette Favara placed third. Likely, voters did not reject LaRue personally as much as they showed disenchantment with the county commission as a whole. The Democrat dominated body generally opposes development and job creation so Republican voters focused their discontent upon the incumbent running in this election. Hopefully the loud and clear message sent Tuesday will resonate with the other commissioners.

The Mineral school board levy suffered defeat again. While supporters may be angered and believe that voters showed greed and short-sightedness, that is not the case. Mineral County residents do support their schools, but they also share concerns about how the money gets spent. I heard a few people complaining last night about the former Keyser High School. They wondered why it was considered unsafe for children, but not a wide variety of businesses. Legitimate answers to this and similar questions may exist, but if voters keep asking the questions, they have not heard or have been convinced by the answers. School officials need to continue working to try and understand the voters' perspective and increase their efforts to communicate. Of course the levy would not be necessary if economic development produced a larger property tax base.

One last interesting note. Before 2004, the state Republican Party rallying cry issued by then party chair Kris Warner was to fill every slot. The Republican Party did not fill every slot this time, but many Republican incumbents such as Keyser's Bob Schadler, Karen Facemyer (4th Senate), and Donna Boley (3rd Senate) saw no Democrats lining up to oppose them. This shows that the state GOP slowly has created strong points in the state. Now it is time to build upon these and move closer to a two party system.

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I'd like to congratulate our friend Assessor Terri Funk of Preston County on her well-earned primary victory on Tuesday. She has served her county well as its assessor and has remained one of the Republican Party's strongest friends in north central West Virginia. Funk works as hard as anyone else in the state holding that office. Congratulations Terri!

1 comment:

  1. "If one does the numbers, however, adding 25% of the Democratic Party's registered voters to 100% of the Republican Party's registered voters produces a very slim margin for Manchin in the general "election. Russ Weeks must run up the same hill as every other GOP gubernatorial contender, convince every voter in his party while counting on disenchantment with the Democrat. As the West Virginia University scandal flowers into fruition, Manchin will find himself in a very competitive race."

    Your optimism is just that, optimism. What on earth makes you think that Democrats who do not vote for Manchin in the primary will vote for a the Republican candidate. If this DNC primary taught us anything, it's that WV voters can always be counted upon to do exactly as expected (and what's scary is that they seem to pride themselves on this predictability).

    The WVU scandal hasn't, doesn't and will not upturn any wrong doing on the part of Manchin. It is far more probable to imagine officials wanting to appease Manchin, than Manchin putting himself on the line by asking for a special favor.

    Marshall's mascot resembles the public opinion of the most West Virginians. Yes, the Herd mentality is alive and strong in the poor (and increasingly poorer) parts of West Virginia. Morgantown, on the other hand, offers a bastion of progress and economic prosperity, much like parts of the eastern panhandle but without the ultra-paranoid, DC metro suburb-dweller attitude that is compatible with the ultra-partisan, internationally disgraced world view presented in this blog.

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