Wednesday, January 9, 2008

"Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated"

Mark Twain's famous quote has great application to Governor Mitt Romney following the results of the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary. The nomination process, due to the high number of candidates without a single candidate dominating the race, resembles nothing so much as the NASCAR Nextel Cup. Consider the outcomes to date, and think of them as individual races:

Iowa -- Romney, 2nd Place
Wyoming -- Romney, 1st Place
New Hampshire -- Romney, 2nd Place

In fact, Romney currently leads in the delegate count (which is the only number that matters). The current delegate breakdown following the New Hampshire results:

Romney: 30
Huckabee: 21
McCain: 10
Thompson: 6
Paul: 2
Giuliani: 1
Hunter: 1

So long as no candidate is consistently coming in first, Romney's consistent second place finishes are good for two reasons: first, as stated, like the Nextel Cup, consistent high finishes allow the racer to rack up points, and it's points that determine the champion. Second, it indicates that Romney may emerge as a consensus 2nd choice--in the event of a brokered national convention, he may rise to the top, or it may make him an attractive Vice Presidential nominee.

So, when I hear the same media writing off Romney when they were writing off Clinton, I just consider the source.

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