Red China: A 21st Century Imperial Anachronism

Even though the most recent reports indicate that Chinese economic momentum is slowing, many still see it as a colossus that could outpace the United States in production and influence sometime this century.  China, however, faces considerable challenges.  Rapid industrialization has polluted entire regions.  Rivers have grown unusable, some large cities are too hazardous for  life.  Corruption and debt hamper its growth, just as they did France before its Revolution.  

China also must face a serious anachronism.  Despite its repeated revolutionary convulsions over the past century, it remains a multinational empire filled with ethnic groups chafing under government control.

This makes it resemble some of the polyglot empires facing trouble before World War I.  The Ottoman Empire, dominated by ethnic Turks, kept an uneasy control over Christian Greeks and Slavs.  It also ruled clans and tribes of Arabs, Kurds, Jews, and other groups.  Czarist Russia strained to control Muslims in Central Asia, Catholic Poles, Protestant Christians in Scandinavia and along the Baltic. Austria-Hungary tried to split power between its two major ethnic groups under one ruling family, but mainly alienated the other 13 peoples.

Decades later, the "nationalities problem" erupted under Gorbachev to help drive the Soviet Union into the dustbin of history.

China has to face this problem too, which may explain why the past year has seen them following in the path of the empires of old.  Trying to prop up internal unity by gaining risky external successes against old rivals. 

According to the 2000 Chinese census, published in the CIA World Factbook, 91 percent of the country's population is Han Chinese.  While this may look overwhelming, it must be remembered that the remaining nine percent add up to 140 million people, approximately the same population as the Russian Federation.  

Also, as the map shows, Han Chinese are concentrated into the eastern part of the country.  The southwest contains the formerly independent, Buddhist, and oft persecuted Tibetans.  The resentment of northwestern Muslims, mostly Turkic Uighurs, against the atheist regime occasionally boils over.  In the last few weeks, Chinese authorities imprisoned a prominent Uighur academic and advocate. 

Inner Mongolians side by side with independent Mongolia.  Traditionally this is a recipe for discontent. Three years ago, authorities feared the effects of major protests against Chinese rule.  Manchuria in the northeast has a high concentration of Han, but has traditionally been considered a separate people from the rest of China.  Much like Sicilians often do not consider themselves to be true Italians.

Significant divisions exist between the non Han 140 million.  But an economic downturn combined with the continued repressive policies of Beijing could unite them in hostility.  

China's aggressive moves against Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and the United States in the past year follow the pattern of the old imperial multinational states.  Concerns about economic decline and ethnic upheaval push their attention outward.  Although the imperial power usually fears the effect of war, it assumes the risk anyway, gambling that it will emerge stronger in the long run.  Unfortunately, such risks often do actually lead to war.  

Regardless of how strong China actually is, or is estimated to be, these kinds of actions have historically pointed to a perception of weakness.  China may perceive itself to be weakening relatively or absolutely.  Or think that it is vulnerable on other fronts.  Multinational empires tended in the past to believe that external shows of strength, aggression, and even bullying, would protect it externally and domestically.

And China is weakening.  Since 2010, each of its major ethnic groups have pushed back against government persecution and abuse.  Its economy, while certainly growing, likely was not developing nearly as fast as reported.  Authoritarian and totalitarian states accidentally encourage falsehood in economic reports because officials fear reporting unpleasant truth.  China also pours resources into ridiculous mammoth projects, much as the old Soviet Union, to try and prove its advancement.  

Most economic forecasts for 2014 predict problems for the Chinese economy.

Knowing the history of states in the situation and condition of 21st century China is helpful in predicting how to respond to emerging problems.  China may be pushing to join the modern economies, but it still is weighed down by problems of decades and even centuries ago.  

Far East Dangers Rising On the Horizon

With all the news of China's blue water navy development in the past few years, another country's response fell under the radar.  Yesterday, however, the unveiling of Japan's newest "destroyer" raised questions.

The "destroyer" surpasses the size of any Japanese ship built since World War II.  To the uneducated (or, perhaps cynical) eye, the Izumo looks suspiciously like an aircraft carrier.  Its flat top deck, allegedly meant for helicopters, is four fifths as long as an American Nimitz class deck.  It also outstrips by about 200 feet the length of the Royal Navy's Illustrious class carriers

Izumo pointedly responds to China's purchase and reconstruction of a Soviet era carrier from Ukraine.

The bigger issue lies in the deteriorating relations between China and her neighbors, specifically Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

Territorial disputes between these nations lay dormant for years.  Recently, technological advances in identifying and extracting sea floor resources have raised the stakes in who owns what stretch of ocean bottom.  Vast natural gas and oil resources interest nations, such as China and Japan, that have little of either.
Interestingly, this issue has also separated Cold War partners Japan and the Nationalist Chinese government based in Taiwan.

Throughout the Cold War, the United States played referee to the region.  Although domestically debated later, the willingness to fight in Korea and Vietnam gave friends assurance and enemies pause.  Few doubted America's willingness to fight for Japan, South Korea, Nationalist China, or other friends.  Moreover, few believed that the US had any goals in the Far East beyond maintaining the status quo.

American power, relatively speaking, has receded in the region as China spent more on expanding and modernizing its warmaking ability.  It also has launched cyberattacks against its opponents' government and business concerns.

Unfortunately for the United States, the Chinese urge to revise the Far East balance of power echoes the shadows of a century ago.

In 1913, the British Empire managed the world power dynamic through a powerful navy and economic productive might.  The German Empire under Kaiser William II aspired to "a place in the sun."  This meant military might, colonial expansion, and international respect on par with the British.

They made an unwise alliance with unstable Austria-Hungary, which was locked in perpetual disputes with Russia over control of southeastern Europe.  When Russia's client state of Serbia served as the base of a devastating terror attack on Austria-Hungary, the clumsy attempt to settle the score touched off World War I.

Similar dynamics are emerging now.  China is setting itself against Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam in its territorial disputes.  It has an unstable client in North Korea whose unpredictability could touch off a war with Japan or South Korea.  It is trying, like Germany in the early 1900s, to build a fleet that can regionally challenge the first rank power.

In other words, a pattern is emerging that could unravel decades of generally peaceful relations among states that despise and fear each other.

China's bold actions mirror those of other states that fear internal discord and try to rally the people around external successes.  It built a middle class, but never allowed it political participation.  That has been the downfall of many authoritarian regimes.  Questions about its debt and actual production numbers lend uncertainty to the perception that it is an economic power fated to outstrip the United States.

This also comes at a time when the Middle East's foundations of stability are collapsing, leftist regimes have come to power in Latin America, and Europe continues to live on the precipice of debt disaster.

Events have pushed the world's nations and people towards a time where only the brilliance of a Prince Otto von Bismarck could restore the balance.  It would be in America's interest to produce such a figure because a war in the Far East would inevitably draw us in.  And like Germany in the late 1800s and early 1900s, very few possible scenarios, even in victory, leave the US better off.