Election Thoughts

First thought. Congratulations to the Mineral County Republican Executive Committee, Potomac Highlands Patriots Tea Party, volunteers, and candidates. This was a huge amount of effort that resulted in a conservative sweep in Mineral County. Great job, folks!

Mineral County's closest race was between Gary Howell and Charles Messick. Howell won by about ten percentage points. Richard "Doc" Lechliter defeated Wayne Spiggle for county commission by about twelve points. The other Mineral County numbers and percentages were much, much higher.

Thank you Lauren Ellifritz, Mineral County Clerk. Last night we saw that there was a very heavy turnout. Her staff, helped by Rose Ann Maine, Mary Margaret Rinehart, Janice LaRue, Cindy Pyles, and others made the election night go very, very smoothly. Thanks again, Lauren and everyone else!

Thank you to all the volunteers who got almost all the signs up last night. Some people do not mind them, but to other citizens they are an imposition that they tolerate becauseof the season. Getting the signs up quickly ensures that we retain their goodwill.

The narrow John Raese defeat, if seen from August, should be considered a Republican victory of sorts. Joe Manchin successfully deflected the message of the race away from his pro Obama statements and towards Raese himself and the Republican campaign. That is why he ultimately won. That all being said, who would have predicted that this race would have gotten this close three months ago?

Across the state, we saw some legislative setbacks. Craig Blair, a well known GOP figure, may have lost in his bid to jump from the House of Delegates to the State Senate in the Eastern Panhandle. The race is still statistically 50-50 with the mercurial John Unger leading by a few hundred votes. Mitch Carmichael's delegate race was much closer than it ought to have been in a district that is mostly Jackson County, but at this point he looks to have won. Former delegate Debbie Stevens was unable to regain the 46th from incumbent Stan Shaver. Republicans also failed to do well in the 57th and 58th districts in Jefferson County. Republicans certainly did better across the state in areas where they have not enjoyed success for some time. Over the next two years, the party needs to focus on local committees and get them up to the fight in every single county. Gary Howell's brief tenure as Mineral County chair demonstrated what can be done on the local level. Thousands of voter guides were distributed on foot and through the newspapers. Door to door walks were done on behalf of several candidates. The committee organized sign distribution and pick ups in a systematic fashion. Unopposed candidates, such as Krista Dixon and Lauren Ellifritz, remained involved throughout the fall with party functions. This is evidence of what can be done by the committees across the state.

Also do not forget the Tea Party. They held dinners and had some of the largest Tea Party rallies in the entire state. They participated in candidate walks. They raised money and paid for billboards in Keyser and the northern part of the county. Their activity was an essential part of victory last night for Republicans in this county. It could not have been done without their work and support. When Tea Parties and Republicans get behind good candidates instead of sniping at each other, they can do great things. The Tea Party brought people into politics who might otherwise have not been involved. Republicans need to recognize how essential the Tea Party movement has been and follow through on promises made to fight for smaller government and the expansion of freedom.

David McKinley, barring any surprise in any recount, seems to have won a slender victory over Mike Oliverio. This was a seat held by Democrats for a very long time. It reflects frustration with federal anti-mining and industrial policies combined with the growing affluence of Morgantown and Fairmont. McKinley is the star of the moment and the biggest success of this election, so long as Democratic lawyers don't find a way to steal the victory from him.

So both locally and across the state, we have a lot of work to do. Election day may be closer than we think. There is a chance of having a special gubernatorial election early next year. In any event, 2012 is closer than we think.

Hat Tip: Sean Gibson Via CNN--Every Republican Vote Counts!

CNN 100: Democratic stronghold in West Virginia up for grabs
By:CNN's Alison Harding
Editor's Note: In the final 100 days before Election Day, CNN has been profiling one race at random each day from among the nation's top 100 House races, which we've dubbed "The CNN 100." Read the full list here. Today's featured district is:
West Virginia-01:
Rep. Alan Mollohan ousted in primaryPrimary: May 11, 2010
Location: Northern West Virginia
Days until Election Day: 22
Veteran Democratic Rep. Alan Mollohan's primary defeat may have actually improved his party's chances of holding on to this historically Democratic West Virginia seat.Mollohan has been beset by ethical questions stemming from a 2006 complaint that he had benefited financially from nonprofit organizations in his state. He has maintained that he did nothing improper, and no charges were ever filed. But in a year that has already proven difficult for incumbents, the controversy opened an opportunity for Democratic state Sen. Mike Oliverio to take on the congressman, who had up until this year encountered few serious challengers during his 14 terms in Congress.
Oliverio soundly defeated Mollohan in the May primary, and now faces Republican David McKinley in the race for West Virginia's northernmost district. Despite a strong Democratic history, Republicans have begun to earn favor in the region, a trend that can be attributed to the Democratic Party's push for more stringent environmental policies that are often at odds with the region's prominent coal mining industry. The Republican nominee has won West Virginia in the last three presidential elections, and Sen. John McCain carried this district by 15 points over then-Sen. Barack Obama in 2008.
Now McKinley, a former state delegate and former state Republican Party chairman, is vying to win back this Democratic stronghold. On the campaign trail, McKinley espouses a fiscally conservative platform, promising to ban earmarks, end tax-payer funded campaigns, and to end congressional retirement benefits. The Republican has also sought to connect Oliverio, who has said he would "support the Democrats' choice for speaker," with Nancy Pelosi and President Obama, who have never been viewed favorably in the state. In the 2008 Democratic presidential primary, Hillary Clinton won West Virginia with 67 percent of the vote over Obama's 26 percent.
But whereas Democrats in other parts of the country have found their popularity decline simply because of their party affiliation, Oliverio may be saved by West Virginia's traditionally loyal Democratic base. A current state Senator, the pro-life, pro-gun Democrat appeals to the state's conservative population. He too has been critical of the health care reform bill, and advocates for fiscal reform.
Nonetheless, both national parties consider the race a nail biter, and have accordingly poured significant resources into the district. The National Republican Congressional Committee named McKinley to its "Young Gun" recruitment program, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Oliverio to its "Red to Blue" program. Both programs provide competitive candidates with financial and strategic support.
Prominent political handicapper Charlie Cook rates this race a "toss up," but notes that Oliverio still has time to swing the race back in his favor. The two candidates both have just over $300,000 cash on hand, strong support from their respective political parties, and positions that are at times complementary. This race may come down to whether the district's Democratic base comes through for their candidate in November.

McKinley Tightening Up Congressional Race in West Virginia 1st

From the Parkersburg News and Sentinel . . .

McKinley poll shows gap closing with Oliverio
September 7, 2010 - By JESS MANCINI, jmancini@newsandsentinel.com
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PARKERSBURG - Democrat Mike Oliverio's lead over opponent David McKinley is dwindling, according to the latest poll taken for McKinley.
The poll by Public Opinion Strategies for release today shows McKinley trailing the Morgantown insurance agent 41 percent to 36 percent in the election for the U.S. House of Representatives 1st Congressional District in West Virginia.
Oliverio released a poll by Hamilton Campaigns immediately after the Aug. 28 special primary election that said he was ahead 52 percent to 36 percent over McKinley, a Wheeling businessman and former state Republican Party chairman.
"These numbers reflect what I am hearing from voters throughout the district, that they have had enough of Obama's War on Coal and Nancy Pelosi's job-killing Capitol Hill agenda," McKinley said in a release from the campaign. "Voters have had enough of the attack from Washington on West Virginia jobs."
In response, the Oliverio campaign said McKinley has been lying about Oliverio.
"David McKinley's been lying about Mike Oliverio since May, and he's spent hundreds of thousands of dollars of his own money doing this," Randy Coleman, an Oliverio spokesman, said Monday. "Now, according to his own poll, he's still stuck in the mud at 36 percent. The lying and buying doesn't seem to be working."
Results also showed Oliverio's "favorables" have sharply fallen, the campaign said.
McKinley's "intensity quotient," the opinion of those paying attention to the race, is 5 points higher than Oliverio's among voters with a "high interest" and 15 percent higher than Oliverio's among voters with an "extremely high interest," the campaign said.
McKinley's lead among voters who have an opinion of both candidates is 53 percent to Oliverio's 40 percent, Rob Autry, McKinley's polling strategist, said.
The survey by Public Opinion Strategies was conducted Sept. 1 and 2 and polled 500 likely voters. The company's clients are primarily Republicans, including Rep. Shelley Capito of West Virginia and Sen. John McCain of Arizona.
"They are the premiere polling firm on the U.S. political scene," said Steve Cohen, a McKinley spokesman.